PCDVD數位科技討論區 - 2005 美國大聯盟季後賽討論區

明天早上7:30，世界大賽即將登場，不論如何，已經注定這兩年是很美好的回憶，因為都是由很長時間沒拿世界冠軍的隊伍奪冠
個人也蠻認同預測的內容，不過臨場表現會是很大的變數，另外來自德州的太空人隊到了芝加哥，對於寒冷天氣的適應狀況，也將值得觀察

以下轉貼某討論區，某人翻譯好的官方預測內容，看看吧！→
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Solid pitching, timely hitting key in Fall Classic - 精彩的投球、適時的攻擊火力將在秋季經典賽(世界大賽)上演。

The Boston Red Sox ended 86 years of World Series futility last season. This time either the Chicago White Sox or the Houston Astros will end their decades-long drought in the 101st World Series.
紅襪在去年球季終結86年在世界大賽的失敗，這一次白襪與太空人在第101屆世界大賽中，任何一方都將終結他們長達數十年的渴望。

The White Sox and Astros, two teams with great starting pitching and National League-style offenses that rely less on the long ball and more on small ball and defense, will face each other in a Fall Classic that in many ways will have a retro feel.
白襪與太空人，這兩支隊伍都擁有很棒的先發投手群以及國家聯盟形式的攻擊，就是不求長打而依賴許多小球方式的攻擊，雙方將在世界大賽競爭中互相使用許多戰術，也將帶來一種新的對戰感受。

【今年季賽雙方攻守數據】
●守備方面：
1)全隊防禦率：太空人3.51(MLB第二) - 白襪3.61(MLB第四)
2)全隊投出三振：太空人1164次(MLB第三) - 白襪1040次(MLB第十一)
3)全隊投出保送：太空人440次(MLB第三，NL第一) - 白襪459次(MLB第八)
4)讓對手上壘率：太空人3成08(MLB第三) - 白襪3成10(MLB第四)
5)讓對手打擊率：太空人2成46(僅次運動家2成41) - 白襪2成49
6)讓對手盜壘成功次數：太空人53次 - 白襪103次

●攻擊方面
1)白襪重點打擊者：Podsednik(59次盜壘成功) - Everett(23HR、87打點) - Konerko(40HR、100打點)
2)太空人重點打擊者：Taveras(打擊2成91、盜壘成功34次) - Biggio(生涯最高26HR、94得分) - Ensberg(打擊2成83、36HR、101打點) - Berkman(打擊2成93、24HR、82打點)
3)全隊得分：太空人(693分) - 白襪(741分)
4)全隊打擊率：太空人2成56(MLB第二十七) - 白襪2成62(MLB第十八)
5)全隊上壘率：雙方都是3成22(並列MLB第二十二)

【MLB播報員Jason Beck 分析】
●白襪會贏的理由：
1. Chicago's starting pitchers are simply outlasting everyone in their path. At this point, simply getting a White Sox reliever onto the mound might be considered a victory. Not only are they coming off four consecutive complete-game wins -- no team had thrown three straight complete-game victories since the Tigers in the 1968 World Series -- but they'll have had five days of rest by the time the series opens.
大意是白襪的投手都很耐投，美聯冠軍賽白襪四場完投勝，但是自1968年世界大賽中老虎隊投出三場完投勝後就沒有隊伍可以超越這個紀錄，不過白襪已經獲得充分的休息了。

2. Hanging breaking balls or no, Paul Konerko has erased any misdiagnosis of anemia in the White Sox lineup. As long as the top of the order gets on base, opposing pitchers don't feel inclined to put him on base, and he's going to have his swings. The way he's been swinging for the past 2 1/2 months, odds are he'll take advantage. And having Konerko hit at Minute Maid Park could be scary.
大意是Paul Konerko 將扮演關鍵打擊的角色，季後賽客場表現比主場好，因此在太空人主場Minute Maid Park 的打擊表現將是令對手提心吊膽的。

3. Chicago's defense isn't making many mistakes. The infielders put their glovework on display in the American League Championship Series, especially third baseman Joe Crede. For the World Series, the guys in focus might well be the underrated White Sox outfielders, whose fundamental skills and tenacity seemingly make up for blistering defensive speed.
大意是白襪的守備優勢會是主宰整場比賽結果的重要因素之一。

●白襪的弱點：
It's tough to call the White Sox bullpen a weakness when no reliever has been used since Game 1 of the ALCS. However, these guys are going to test the notion of too much rest for a pitcher. Rookie closer Bobby Jenks will head into the World Series having been out of game action since the last game of the Division Series sweep of the Red Sox. If Jenks goes unused in Game 1, his absence will be as long as a stint on the 15-day disabled list. Other than Neal Cotts, the arms behind Jenks have seen no more than one game all postseason. That's a lot of rust to try to shake off in simulated games and bullpen throwing.
當美聯冠軍賽第一場之後，白襪沒用任何一個救援投手，然而對於休息這麼多天的投手將準備面對世界大賽，這對白襪牛棚可能是一個弱點；菜鳥終結者Bobby Jenks 將自上一次於ALDS出賽橫掃紅襪後首次在世界大賽中上場，如果Jenks在首戰沒有出場，那他將長達15天之久沒有出賽；另一個Neal Cotts整個季後賽更是幾乎都沒有出賽(只投0.1局)，這些投手都荒廢在練習模擬賽及牛棚練投中。

●關鍵對決：
The White Sox have a lot of batters who used to hit Roger Clemens well before The Rocket jumped to the National League. Crede is 3-for-5 (.600) with two solo homers against him. Konerko is 8-for-18 (.444) with two homers and five RBIs off Clemens, while Jermaine Dye is 6-for-18 (.333) and Scott Podsednik is 5-for-14 (.357). No matter where the Astros pitch Clemens in their World Series rotation, the intimidation factor is not going to be on his side.
白襪有許多對Roger Clemens打的不錯的打者，Crede面對 Clemens有5打數3安打(打擊6成)包含兩支陽春砲，Konerko則有18打數8安打(打擊4成44)包含兩支全壘打及5分打點， Jermaine Dye 有18打數6安打(打擊3成33)以及 Scott Podsednik 有14打數5安打(打擊3成57)。無論太空人將在世界大賽中哪一場派Clemens出場，這威脅對手的因素將不會站在Clemens這邊。

●太空人會贏的理由：
1. Houston might be the one team in the Majors that can match the White Sox rotation for depth. No, Brandon Backe doesn't carry nearly the star power that Jose Contreras does right now, but his performance to keep things close Sunday was worthy of recognition. The remainder of the quartet -- Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt -- don't have to play second billing to anyone.
太空人可能是大聯盟裡唯一可與白襪投手深度相抗衡的隊伍，雖然Brandon Backe 現階段無法像Jose Contreras 那樣的出色，但是他的表現被認為可以擔任星期天的出賽(註)；四位先發的另外三位 -- Clemens、Andy Pettitte 和 Roy Oswalt -- 對於任何隊伍都會被視為最重要的投手。
※註：依照官網最新的投手輪值，星期天(美國時間)將是Andy Pettitte 先發。

2. Introducing Minute Maid Park to the AL could erase some of that fear factor surrounding Chicago's pitching. White Sox arms have to deal with their own homer-friendly ballpark, too, but the home run totals at U.S. Cellular Field the past two years have had more to do with jet stream than dimensions. It shouldn't be a huge advantage, but it could be enough to tilt command toward Houston in the middle games.
大意是 Minute Maid Park (太空人主場)的設計會讓白襪的打者頭痛，而Minute Maid Park 的主場優勢也會是太空人在中段賽(第三四五戰)中贏球的關鍵。

3. Houston's bullpen is better all the way around, and it gets downright scary when Brad Lidge enters the game. If the Astros starters can simply work to a low-scoring draw entering the late innings and Houston's hitters can raise pitch counts against Freddy Garcia and company, they have more than a fair chance.
大意是太空人的牛棚表現總是很優異的，即使低比分也能輕易的保住勝果，另外太空人的打者若能突破Freddy Garcia 及其他白襪的投手(意指大量得分)，那對於贏得比賽更是十拿九穩。

●太空人的弱點：
The Astros could fall to a similarly quick fate as the Angels did if they don't do a better job of driving in runs. Houston went 2-for-31 (.065) with runners in scoring position through the first four games of the NLCS, but it got away with it because of its pitching. Those struggles become magnified against a White Sox club that moves runners along.
大意是如果太空人無法有效掌握得分機會，那會像天使一樣的失敗，太空人在NLCS前四場中31次得分圈有跑者卻只有擊出2支安打(打擊率不到1成)，主要是靠投手優異的表現拿下勝利，而得分圈打擊是否有效也成為面對白襪重要的關鍵(因為白襪的投手不比太空人差)。

●關鍵對決：
White Sox pitchers were superb at teasing Red Sox and Angels sluggers enough to hit themselves into outs. On paper, that shouldn't be as easy against the Astros' top hitters, who are disciplined as much as they are dangerous. Lance Berkman would've walked well over 100 times this season had he been healthy all year, and Morgan Ensberg didn't fall far off either. Both boast excellent hand-eye coordination and have shown they can cut down on their swings to be perfectly fine singles hitters if they have to be. It might not help them against Contreras, but it could give them a better chance against Mark Buehrle, Garcia and Jon Garland.
大意 - 雖然白襪投手群讓紅襪及天使的打擊群長打毫無發揮，但是對於更危險的太空人打擊群，將不是那麼的容易對付；Lance Berkman 如果今年整季沒有因傷缺席，那麼他被保送的次數將可能超過100次(今年出賽132場被保送91次)，還有Morgan Ensberg 也相差不多(今年出賽150場被保送85次)，這兩位太空人的重要打者對於白襪的投手會成為關鍵性的對決。

●最後贏家：
White Sox in six games. When Mike Scioscia compared the White Sox pitching staff to what the 1966 Orioles had, it was high praise on a historic level. Those O's swept the Dodgers with shutouts in Games 2, 3 and 4 of the World Series. That won't happen again, but it'll take spectacular pitching from the Astros to send this series back to Chicago.
白襪將會在第六戰贏得冠軍(4W-2L)，天使教練 Mike Scioscia 比較白襪與1996年金鶯的投手陣容，當時金鶯的投手陣容在MLB歷史上有很高的評價，當年金鶯四連勝橫掃道奇贏得世界大賽的冠軍，以白襪現在的投手陣容不會再發生四連勝的情況，但是驚人的投球表現會將系列賽從太空人主場帶回芝加哥。